We investigate the theoretically proposed link between judgmental overconfidence and trading activity. In addition to applying classical measures of miscalibration, we introduce a measure to capture misperception of signal reliability, which is the relevant bias in the theoretical overconfidence...

Overconfidence is used to explain various instances of detrimental decision making. In behavioral economic and finance models, it is usually captured by misperceiving the reliability of signals and results in overweighting private information. Empirical tests of these models often fail to find...

The overvaluation hypothesis (Miller, 1977) predicts that (a) stocks are overvalued in the presence of short selling restrictions and that (b) the overvaluation increases in the degree of divergence of opinion. We design an experiment that allows us to test these predictions in the laboratory....