Making accurate forecasts of the future direction of interest rates is a vital element when making economic decisions. The focus on central banks as they make decisions about the future direction of interest rates requires the forecaster to assess the likely outcome of committee decisions based...

The importance of truncated distributions for bias in estimation is demonstrated for a Japanese policy reaction function. Due to the proximity of a zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates, coefficient estimates can be biased upwards. This paper illustrates the importance of measuring and...

This paper uses a modified New Keynesian framework to consider the use of monetary information in making monetary policy decisions. We add monetary indicators derived from theoretical models to conventional economic variables in an instrument rule and estimate the equations using euroarea and UK...