A Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling a nonlinear dynamic model is presented. New techniques for sampling infinite mixture models are used. The inference procedure specifically in the case of the logistic model and when the nonparametric component is applied to the additive errors is...

We provide details on the full reconstruction of the dynamic equations from measured time series data, given the general class of the underlying physical process. Our results can be used by researchers in physical modelling and statistical mechanics interested in an efficient estimation of low...

Let X=(X1,X2,...,Xn) be a size n sample of i.i.d. random variables, whose distribution belong to the one-parameter ([theta]) continuous exponential family. We examine prediction functions of the form [theta]mh(X),m[greater-or-equal, slanted]1, where h is a polynomial in X. A natural identity...

Hippocampal volume is one of the best established biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease. However, for appropriate use in clinical trials research, the evolution of hippocampal volume needs to be well understood. Recent theoretical models propose a sigmoidal pattern for its evolution. To support...

The authors investigate the linkage between presidential operational codes and the management of foreign policy conflicts during the period of strategic adjustment in American foreign policy following the cold war. Beliefs expressed in public speeches by Presidents George Bush and Bill Clinton...

This paper examines the interface between Henry Kissinger's operational code and his bargaining behavior during the Vietnam conflict. Kissinger's position at the pinnacle of the American foreign affairs hierarchy, amidst the existence of competing policy recommendations, may be regarded as...

This article employs events data to compare two studies of crisis bargaining: a qualitative study by Snyder and Diesing based on comparative case studies, and a quantitative study by Leng and Wheeler. Three propositions are tested: (1) both disputants will adopt increasingly coercive bargaining...

This study addresses the impact of crisis management strategies, stress, and groupthink conditions on the integrative complexity of British decision makers in 10 decision-making episodes during two Anglo-German crises in 1938 and 1939. A systematic random sample of Prime Minister Neville...

This paper considers generating exchangeable partition probability functions from an independent and identically distributed sample from a geometric distribution. We show that the model is rich and while different from exchangeable random variables based on nonparametric models, such as the...