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Fatás, Antonio; Mihov, Ilian - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

We analyze empirically the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy among a group of 23 OECD countries. We introduce a framework to capture fiscal policy stance in a way that brings together automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy. We show that, for most countries, automatic changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084611

Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy: Permanent and Transitory Shocks

Strawczynski, Michel; Zeira, Joseph - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

This paper examines the optimal reaction of fiscal policy to permanent and transitory shocks to output in a model of tax and public consumption smoothing. The model predicts that optimal reaction of public expenditures and deficits to transitory shocks should be countercyclical, while optimal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791927

Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks

Mertens, Karel; Ravn, Morten O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

We provide empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005061480

Brazil's Fiscal Stance during 1995-2005: The Effect of Indebtedness on Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle

Mello, Luiz de; Moccero, Diego - Economics Department, Organisation de Coopération et … - 2006

Brazil's fiscal adjustment since the floating of the real in 1999 has been impressive, even in periods of lacklustre growth. This suggests a remarkable fiscal effort to ensure public debt sustainability. To better gauge the magnitude of this adjustment effort, this paper applies the methodology...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005046134

If the United States sneezes, does the world need “pain-killers”?

Herrerias, M.J.; Ordóñez, J. - In: International Review of Economics & Finance 31 (2014) C, pp. 159-170

nonlinear framework allows the asymmetries of the business cycle to be captured properly to identify the synchronization …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048282

Institutions and Business Cycles

Altug, Sumru G.; Emin, Mustafa; Neyapti, Bilin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

determinants of business cycle synchronization for the countries in our sample, we also demonstrate that the bilateral proximity of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083779

Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?

Altug, Sumru G.; Canova, Fabio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

duration of expansions is shorter; the amplitude and the output costs of recessions are larger; and cyclical synchronization is … synchronization. By contrast, differences in cultural indicators account for relative differences in the persistence, the volatility … and the synchronization of cyclical fluctuations. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084013

One money, one cycle? The EMU experience

Gächter, Martin; Riedl, Aleksandra - In: Journal of Macroeconomics 42 (2014) C, pp. 141-155

We examine whether the introduction of the euro had a significant impact on the synchronization of business cycles … synchronization index that is constructed on a year-by-year basis (1993–2011), we uncover a strong and robust empirical finding: the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011118002

The effects of unification: markets, policy, and cyclical convergence in Italy, 1861–1913

Ciccarelli, Carlo; Fenoaltea, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso - In: Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and … 4 (2010) 3, pp. 269-292

This paper uses time-series evidence on construction movements to examine the convergence of regional business cycles in the decades that followed Italy’s unification. The aggregate series point to cyclical convergence, but a sector-level analysis traces this result to the decline in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008525378

On Identifying the Core of EMU: An Exploration of Some Empirical Criteria

Artis, Michael J; Zhang, Wenda - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997

The paper reports strikingly high correlations of the cyclical components of industrial production between the participant countries in the ERM. Supplementing these correlations with criteria based on real exchange rate volatility, trade and monetary policy conformity, cluster analysis is used...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123757

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