Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide the first formal analysis of this question with special attention to the...

The classical NBER leading indicators model was built solely within a linear framework. With recent developments in nonlinear time-series analysis, several authors have begun to examine the forecasting properties of nonlinear models in the field of forecasting business cycles. The research...