Ensemble prediction systems aim to account for uncertainties of initial conditions and model error. Ensemble forecasting is sometimes viewed as a method of obtaining (objective) probabilistic forecasts. How is one to judge the quality of an ensemble at forecasting a system? The probability that...

Quantitative modeling of risk and hazard from flooding involves decisions regarding the choice of model and goal of the modeling exercise, expressed by some measure of performance. This paper shows how the subjectivity in the choices of performance measures and observation sets used for model...

The European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) represents a new approach to the management of water across Europe. As part of the implementation of the WFD, integrated, catchment-scale plans for the protection and restoration of aquatic ecosystems must be developed. These plans need to be...

A multi-scale framework for decision support is presented that uses a combination of experiments, models, communication, education and decision support tools to arrive at a realistic strategy to minimise diffuse pollution. Effective partnerships between researchers and stakeholders play a key...

The objective of this contribution is to form a clear picture of uncertainties we encounter in flood estimation, including both real-time flood forecasting and simulation for flood risk estimation. In simulation, we prefer the thesis of equifinality to obtain global optima. Many models producing...

It may be endemic to mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems that there are many different model structures and many different parameter sets within a chosen model structure that may be behavioural or acceptable in reproducing the observed behaviour of that system. This has been...

The problems of calibrating soil hydraulic and transport parameters are well documented, particularly when data are limited. Programs such as CXTFIT, UUCODE and PEST, based on well established principles of statistical inference, will often provide good fits to limited observations giving the...

Quantitative modeling of risk and hazard from flooding involves decisions regarding the choice of model and goal of the modeling exercise, expressed by some measure of performance. This paper shows how the subjectivity in the choices of performance measures and observation sets used for model...

This article provides an extended response to the criticisms of the GLUE methodology by Mantovan and Todini [Mantovan, P., Todini, E., 2006. Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: incoherence of the GLUE methodology. J. Hydrol. 330, 368–381]. It is shown that the formal Bayesian...

Operational flood forecasting requires accurate forecasts with a suitable lead time, in order to be able to issue appropriate warnings and take appropriate emergency actions. Recent improvements in both flood plain characterization and computational capabilities have made the use of distributed...