Operational weather forecasts now allow two week probabilistic forecasts of wave height. This paper discusses methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System. The ECMWF system produces...

Policy interest in the cost of adaptation is growing, but compared to the mitigation literature adaptation cost research is still in its infancy. Global adaptation cost estimates from more recent studies range from around $25 billion a year to well over $100 billion by 2015-2030. The wide range...

Integral models for heavy gas dispersion approximate a dispersing cloud in terms of a small number of variables; each of these is ultimately a function of an independent variable which is usually time (instantaneous releases) or downwind distance (continuous releases).This type of model is used...

We propose an entirely new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry responsible for the generation of the effective quark and lepton Yukawa couplings. We show that the Higgs fields responsible for the...

Quintessential inflation is studied using a string modulus as the inflaton–quintessence field. The modulus begins its evolution at the steep part of its scalar potential, which is due to non-perturbative effects (e.g. gaugino condensation). It is assumed that the modulus crosses an enhanced...

This paper investigates the determinants of the prices of branded prescription medicines across different regulatory settings and health care systems, taking into account their launch date, patent status, market dynamics and the regulatory context in which they diffuse. By using volume-weighted...

The size of national health care expenditure is an important research and policy issue. This paper reviews theoretical and empirical analyses of an implied optimal size for a health sector. Various economic theories are explicitly or implicitly invoked, but none is fully satisfactory. Theory...

To overcome the problem of insufficient research and development (R&D) on vaccines for diseases concentrated in low-income countries, sponsors could commit to purchase viable vaccines if and when they are developed. One or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price that would be paid per...

Aim: To assess the impact of early intervention (EI) services on service costs for people with first-episode psychosis. Methods: A decision model was constructed to map the care pathways following input from EI services and from standard care. A Markov process was used to run the model over 18...

The current study estimated the previous termcontribution of job characteristics to socioeconomic inequalitiesnext term in previous termincidence of myocardial infarctionnext term (MI) during a 12-year follow-up period. Data were from the working population (aged 25–64 years) in the...