"We develop a method for identifying and quantifying the fiscal channels that help finance government spending shocks. We define fiscal shocks as surprises in defense spending and show that they are more precisely identified when defense stock data are used in addition to aggregate macroeconomic...

Credit default swap (CDS) and equity options markets often experience abnormal swings prior to the announcement of negative credit news. Option prices reveal information about such forthcoming adverse events at least as early as credit spreads, except for negative earnings announcements. Prior...

We develop a method for identifying and quantifying the fiscal channels that help finance government spending shocks. We define fiscal shocks as surprises in defense spending and show that they are more precisely identified when defense stock data are used in addition to aggregate macroeconomic...

Prior to the subprime crisis, mortgage brokers originated about 65% of all subprime mortgages. Yet little is known about their behavior during the runup to the crisis. Using data from New Century Financial Corporation, we find that brokers earned an average revenue of $5,300 per funded loan. We...

Nearly half of the variation in European CDS returns is captured by a novel factor that mimics economic catastrophe risk. During the financial crisis of 2007--8, this factor became more important relative to other sources of risk, leading to a shift in the correlation structure of CDS returns....

Bank credit has evolved from the traditional relationship banking model to an originate-to-distribute model. We show that the borrowers whose loans are sold in the secondary market underperform their peers by about 9% per year (risk-adjusted) over the three-year period following the initial sale...