Showing 1 - 10 of 197
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001748802
In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine "rationality" conditional on a given loss function. We examine this from a different perspective—supposing that we have a family of loss functions indexed by unknown shape parameters, then given the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010638106
Empirical studies using survey data on expectations have frequently observed that forecasts are biased and have concluded that agents are not rational. We establish that existing rationality tests are not robust to even small deviations from symmetric loss and hence have little ability to tell...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005737257
In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine ‘rationality’ conditional on a given loss function. We examine this from a different perspective - supposing that we have a family of loss functions indexed by unknown shape parameters, then given the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791975
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003443849
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011521704
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011493543
Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012254692
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011587071
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011743161