This paper puts recent theoretical developments in the literature on currency crises in perspective by comparing two theoretical approaches, one based on the speculative attack model of Krugman-Flood-Garber and the other approach, which evolved following the 1992-93 crisis of the European...

China's remarkable run of persistently high growth in recent decades is all the more stunning in light of the country's low levels of financial and institutional development, state-dominated economy, and nondemocratic government. Notwithstanding the inefficient and risky growth model, the...

In this paper, we investigate worldwide contagion and its determinants during the 2008 financial crisis. Utilizing an international sample of returns from 2003 to 2009, we consider both uni- and bi-directional contagion. After controlling for crisis-related volatility, we find strong evidence...

We use changes in Brazil's tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2011 to test for direct portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls on investor portfolios. The analysis is structured based on information from investor interviews. We find that an increase in Brazil's tax on foreign...

This paper analyzes the drivers of international waves in capital flows. We build on the literature on “sudden stops” and “bonanzas” to develop a new methodology for identifying episodes of extreme capital flow movements using quarterly data on gross inflows and gross outflows,...

This paper puts the original Reinhart-Rogoff dataset, made public by Herndon et al. (2013), to a formal econometric test to pin down debt thresholds endogenously. We show that the nonlinear relation from debt to growth is not very robust. Taken with a pinch of salt, our results suggest, however,...

Notwithstanding a very strong economic performance over the past decade or so, Poland’s per capita income is substantially lower in comparison with the United States and per capita income growth will be sharply slowing down over the coming decades under the scenario of gradual policy changes...

The economics profession seems to increasingly endorse the existence of a strongly negative nonlinear effect of public debt on economic growth. Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) were the first to point out that a public debt-to-GDP ratio higher than 90% of GDP is associated with considerably lower...

This paper studies the effect of exchange rate pass-through on inflation in Tunisia for the period 2001 to 2009. The objective is to track inflation regimes for the Tunisian economy and to forecast its determinants. Using a Markov-switching approach, the authors identified two main regimes for...

This paper documents four trends in Asia: (1) the increase in the magnitude of gross capital inflows and outflows; (2) the larger magnitude of gross capital inflows relative to outflows in some countries; (3) the increase in the volatility of these capital flows; and (4) the steady increase in...