This paper investigates the link between the lack of consumer confidence and stock returns during market fluctuations. Using a Markov-switching framework, we first focus on whether the shock to consumer confidence has asymmetric effects on stock returns. We also examine whether the decreased...

This paper investigates exchange rate and monetary policies over the business cycle in Taiwan. We first characterize the business cycle dynamics in Taiwan and identify foreign shocks as the main cause of any fluctuations. We then briefly review the exchange rate system and policy operating in...

type="main" xml:lang="en" <p>Whether or not politics cause changes in monetary policy is controversial in the literature. This article re-examines the link between politics and regime shifts in monetary policy using two alternative approaches. First, empirical results show that both the...</p>

type="main" xml:lang="en" <p>This paper uses monthly data from 1984:M10 to 2012:M8 to show that oil-sensitive stock price indices, particularly those in the energy sector, have strong power in predicting nominal and real crude oil prices at short horizons (1-month-ahead predictions), using both in-...</p>

This paper examines whether higher oil price volatility causes a reversal in globalization. Using a large annual panel data set covering 84 countries all over the world from 1984 to 2008, we investigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on international trade, namely exports and imports. We...

This paper reexamines the explanatory power of Taylor rule fundamentals for real exchange rate determination. We assume the agents know the time-varying parameters in central bank policy rules. The empirical results suggest that a monetary policy rule with regime switching is better able to...