Combining economic time series with the aim to obtain an indicator for business cycle analyses is an important issue for policy makers. In this area, econometric techniques usually rely on systems with either a small number of series, N, or, at the other extreme, a very large N. In this paper we...

This paper considers methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series in a framework where the number of predictors, N, is too large to apply traditional regression models but not sufficiently large to resort to statistical inference based on double asymptotics. Our interest is motivated by a...

For non-stationary vector autoregressive models (VAR hereafter, or VAR with moving average, VARMA hereafter), we show that the presence of common cyclical features or cointegration leads to a reduction of the order of the implied univariate autoregressive-integrated-moving average (ARIMA...

VAR models with common cyclical features imply parsimonious univariate final equations, justifying the use of both time series aggregation, and homogenous panels with common factors and dynamic heterogeneity. However, conducting statistical inferences based on too restrictive models might be...