In this article, we focus on the ability of two financial variables—the yield curve spread and the euro–US dollar exchange rate—to predict French recessions over the period 1979–2010. First, we propose a turning point chronology for the French business cycle based on a classical...

This article reviews the different datings of the French economic fluctuations in the period 1970-2010. The analysis is based on three fundamental problems : the definition, the measure and the method for dating economic cycles. We propose our own chronology by using the three types of...