Theoretically, the implied cost of capital (ICC) is a good proxy for time-varying expected returns. We find that aggregate ICC strongly predicts future excess market returns at horizons ranging from one month to four years. This predictive power persists even in the presence of popular valuation...

Firms that increase (decrease) dividends experience a significant decline (increase) in their systematic risk. The dividend-increasing firms do not increase their capital expenditure and experience a decline in profitability in the years after the dividend change. The positive market reaction to...

We reexamine the time-series relation between the conditional mean and variance of stock market returns. To proxy for the conditional mean return, we use the implied cost of capital, computed using analyst forecasts. The usefulness of this proxy is shown in simulations. In empirical analysis, we...

This article describes the relation between closed-end fund discounts and time-varying expected excess returns on small firms. The results indicate that closed-end fund discounts forecast future excess returns on small firms. The information in discounts is independent of that in other commonly...

In this article we are concerned with the effect of the number of investment analysts following a firm on the speed of adjustment of the firm's stock price to new information that has common effects across firms. It is found that returns on portfolios of firms that are followed by many analysts...

We re-examine the time-series relation between the conditional mean and variance of stock market returns. To proxy for the conditional mean return, we use the implied cost of capital, computed using analyst forecasts. The usefulness of this proxy is shown in simulations. In empirical analysis,...