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The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach

Ritschl, Albrecht; Sarferaz, Samad; Uebele, Martin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

This paper reexamines U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We employ dynamic factor analysis as an alternative to … reconstructed national accounts. We find a remarkable volatility increase across World War I, which is reversed after World War II …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504432

Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession : an extended Markov-Switching dynamic factor model

Doz, Catherine; Ferrara, Laurent; Pionnier, Pierre-Alain - 2020

need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility … Factor Model (MS-DFM) by incorporating two new features: switches in volatility and time-variation in trend GDP growth. First …, we show that volatility switches largely improve the detection of business cycle turning points in the low-volatility …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227436

Interbank Networks and the Interregional Transmission of Financial Crises : Evidence from the Panic of 1907

Jaremski, Matthew S.; Wheelock, David C. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This paper provides quantitative evidence on interbank transmission of financial distress in the Panic of 1907 and ensuing recession. Originating in New York City, the panic led to payment suspensions and emergency currency issuance in many cities. Data on the universe of interbank connections...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287370

Firewood in the American Economy : 1700 to 2010

Muller, Nicholas Z. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

Despite the central role of firewood in the development of the early American economy, prices for this energy fuel are absent from official government statistics and the scholarly literature. This paper presents the most comprehensive dataset of firewood prices in the United States compiled to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015421925

The Spanish Mission Legacy on Native American Reservations

Alston, Lee J.; Duggan, Marie Christine; Pastrana, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We explore the long run impact of the Spanish missions on Native American outcomes in the early 20th century. Native communities who interacted with Spanish missionaries developed into enclaves which blended Catholicism with native culture. Some survived assaults on their property rights by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334468

Did the founding of the Federal Reserve affect the vulnerability of the interbank system to systemic risk?

Carlson, Mark; Wheelock, David C. - 2016 - Draft: July 18, 2016

As a result of legal restrictions on branch banking, an extensive interbank system developed in the United States during the 19th century to facilitate interregional payments and flows of liquidity and credit. Vast sums moved through the interbank system to meet seasonal and other demands, but...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578151

International and historical dimensions of the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008

Dwyer, Gerald P.; Lothian, James R. - In: Journal of International Money and Finance 31 (2012) 1, pp. 1-9

This article provides an interpretative overview of the papers in this special issue of JIMF devoted to international aspects of the 2007–2009 financial crisis. It then goes on to provide additional empirical evidence of two sorts. The first documents the difference between the monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010577044

The Future of US Economic Growth

Fernald, John G.; Jones, Charles I. - In: American Economic Review 104 (2014) 5, pp. 44-49

Modern growth theory suggests that more than three-quarters of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, US economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010773988

Not Just the Great Contraction: Friedman and Schwartz's A Monetary History of the United States 1867 to 1960

Bordo, Michael D.; Rockoff, Hugh - In: American Economic Review 103 (2013) 3, pp. 61-65

Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz published A Monetary History of the United States: 1867 to 1960 with Princeton University Press in 1963, to critical acclaim. Since then the book's reputation has grown and it clearly has become one of the most influential volumes in economics in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010659359

Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data

Owyang, Michael T.; Ramey, Valerie A.; Zubairy, Sarah - In: American Economic Review 103 (2013) 3, pp. 129-34

A key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during times when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering multiple large wars and depressions in the United...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010659398