China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

Since the 1990s, South Korea's population has been aging and its fertility rate has fallen. At the same time, the number of Koreans living abroad has risen considerably. These trends threaten to diminish South Korea's international and economic stature. To mitigate the negative effects of these...

Predicting future economic trends appropriately is essential to economic policy making. Currently, the DSGE model approach is a benchmark economic forecasting technique widely employed. However, large external shocks, such as large-scale natural disasters and COVID-19, challenge current...

We document a process of rapid tertiarization of the Chinese economy since 2005. The employment and value-added shares of the service sector have increased significantly. Moreover, total factor productivity growth has increased faster in the service sector than in the manufacturing sector....

China's remarkable run of persistently high growth in recent decades is all the more stunning in light of the country's low levels of financial and institutional development, state-dominated economy, and nondemocratic government. Notwithstanding the inefficient and risky growth model, the...

On April 1, 2002, the Japanese government lifted a blanket guarantee of all deposits and began limiting the coverage of time deposits. This paper uses this deposit insurance reform as a natural experiment to investigate the relationship between deposit insurance coverage and market discipline. I...

This paper uses the concept of Granger-causality to analyze the link between export expansion in the rapidly growing Guangdong province and GDP growth and exports in Hunan, its adjacent northwest neighbor province. Data cover the 1978 to 2001 period. A long-run equilibrium relationship is found...

This paper analyzes changes in labor force participation rates over time for gender- and ethnicity-differentiated groups in urban China. From 1990 to 2000, urban labor force participation rates fell substantially with women's rates declining more rapidly than men's and minority women's declining...