The non-stationarity of many macroeconomic time series has lead to an increased demand for economic models that are able to generate fragile equilibria. For instance, in this literature the natural unemployment rate is allowed to shift over time depending on past unemployment. Actually, many...

The annual structure of real output in the G7 countries is investigated in this article by means of fractional integration techniques. However, instead of using the classical ARMA specifications for describing the short-run components of the series, we use an approach due to Bloomfield (1973)....

The paper addresses the issue of choice of bandwidth in the application of semiparametric estimation of the long memory parameter in a univariate time series process. The focus is on the properties of forecasts from the long memory model. A variety of cross-validation methods based on out of...

In this paper we compare the unemployment dynamics of the US and Germany with monthly data up to 2008. With data from 1971 on the evidence is mixed when applying descriptive methods or formal unit root tests. When allowing for fractional integration, however, we find similar results to the...

This study tests for a break in the persistence of EMU government bond yield spreads examining data from France, Italy and Spain and using German interest rates as a kind of benchmark. The results reported here provide evidence for breaks between 2006 and 2008. The persistence of the yield...

In the last few years we have observed the deregulation in electricity markets and an increasing interest in price dynamics has been developed especially to consider all stylized facts shown by spot prices. Only few papers have considered the Italian Electricity Spot market since it has been...

We find that short rates are more nonstationary than longer rates and that differences in conditional volatility exist between different maturities. Therefore, their dynamics may be both maturity specific and country specific, and any a priori generalizing assumptions may be misleading.

The behavior of impulse response coefficients as persistence measures is discussed under fractional integration. Results for long memory processes are extended to the antipersistent case of short memory.

In this paper, the long memory properties of disaggregated fossils, coal and electricity retail consumption in the U.S. over the 1989–2009 period are examined. The presence of long memory is related to autocorrelation persistence of each series. Our results show that there is heterogeneity in...

Harvey, Leybourne and Taylor [Harvey, D.I., Leybourne, S.J., Taylor, A.M.R. 2009. Simple, robust and powerful tests of the breaking trend hypothesis. Econometric Theory 25, 995–1029] develop a test for the presence of a broken linear trend at an unknown point in the sample whose size is...