This article summarises research on the role of forward-looking behaviour in important sectors of a macro- econometric model. It is based on the work of a number of researchers at the National Institute over the last two years. Important changes are introduced into many central equations in the...

This article summarises research on the role of forward-looking behaviour in important sectors of a macro- econometric model. It is based on the work of a number of researchers at the National Institute over the last two years. Important changes are introduced into many central equations in the...

This article argues that an independent central bank is not in itself sufficient to ensure the long-term success and stability of the economy. While there are strong academic arguments for making the central bank independent, these arguments are often developed in a closed economy setting. Where...

The four papers which follow were written for a conference organised by the National Institute on 24 February. The papers draw on some of the major developments in macroeconomic research and policy appraisal at the Institute over the last two or three years. Particular emphasis is placed on the...

In this article re-estimates are made of some of the main econometric models of inflation that have been proposed for the UK. Primarily these are wage inflation models, though reference is also made in the article to price equations. Estimates for each model are provided for a number of...

The relation between the government's need to borrow and the stock of money in the country is a complex one. It is affected by the nature of the expenditures and revenues which require the borrowing and by the way in which the borrowing is financed. From time to time it has been suggested that...