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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011412836
Recently regime-switching models have become the standard tool for modeling electricity prices. These models capture the main properties of electricity spot prices well but estimation of the model parameters requires computer intensive methods. Moreover, the distribution of the price spikes must...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011039585
This paper investigates the forecasting performance for CDS spreads of both linear and non-linear models by analysing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010931482
large number of forecasting models have been designed to forecast crude oil prices' volatility, so far the relative … performance evaluation of competing forecasting models remains an exercise that is unidimensional in nature. To be more specific …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010571716
, causality tests and out-of-sample forecasting tasks are carried out to empirically the strong relationship between the two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010989284
In the last decade, with deregulation and introduction of competition in power markets, prices forecasting have become … a real challenge for all market participants. However, forecasting is a rather complex task since electricity prices … conditional variance in electricity spot prices. Forecasting is subsequently performed on the basis of adequate models. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145341
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012390465
This paper examines the issue of monetary policy convergence for members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) using the Markov Switching unit root procedure. The results from the conventional unit root tests including the Dickey-Fuller and the modified Dickey-Fuller reveal that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096463
Financial analysts assume that the reliability of predictions derived from regression analysis improves with sample size. This is generally true because larger samples tend to produce less noisy results than smaller samples. But this is not always the case. Some observations are more relevant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012225139
We calculate impulse response functions from regime-switching models where the driving variable can respond to the shock. Two methods used to estimate the impulse responses in these models are generalized impulse response functions and local projections. Local projections depend on the observed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372466