We consider the debt capacity of a risky asset when debt is being rolled over and there is a liquidation cost in case of default. We show that debt capacity depends on how information about the quality of the asset is revealed. When the information structure is based on “optimistic”...

This paper examines the issues of the aggregation and comparison of the credit ratings of various economic agents for risk management purposes in a commercial bank. The empirical results of the study make it possible to increase the assessment of credit risks based on the constructed system of...

By employing Moody’s corporate default and rating transition data spanning the last 90years we explore how much capital banks should hold against their corporate loan portfolios to withstand historical stress scenarios. Specifically, we will focus on the worst case scenario over the...

We present a macro variable-based empirical model for corporate bank loans’ credit risk. The model captures the well-known positive relationship between probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD; i.e., the inverse of recovery) and their counter-cyclical movement with the business...

Firm political contributions are associated with lower credit default swap spreads for contributing firms. To address endogeneity, we employ novel instruments and use a set of exogenous events on campaign contribution restrictions: (a) the passage of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA)...

Credit migration is an essential component of credit portfolio modeling. In this paper, we outline a framework for gauging the effects of credit migration on portfolio risk measurements. For a typical loan portfolio, we find credit migration can explain as much as 51% of volatility and 35% of...

We explore how general economic conditions impact defaults and major credit rating changes by fitting reduced-form Cox intensity models with a broad range of macroeconomic and firm-specific ratings-related variables. For all corporate issuers in the period 1981–2002 we find both types of...

We propose a new method for analysing multi-period stress scenarios for portfolio credit risk more systematically than in current macro stress tests. The plausibility of a scenario is quantified by its distance from an average scenario. For a given level of plausibility, we search systematically...

Credit risk measurement remains a critical field of top priority in banking finance, directly implicated in the recent global financial crisis. This paper examines the dynamic linkages between credit risk migration due to rating shifts and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, reflected in...

To ensure that central counterparties (“CCPs”) are safe in all market conditions the European Union (EU) has adopted legislation, commonly known as the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (“EMIR”) that deals with their organisational requirements, including prudential requirements...