This paper studies the impact of shocks to banks’ balance sheets on real economic activity. The sample consists of 18 OECD countries observed annually from 1979 to 2003. Using the Rajan–Zingales method, I find that industries that depend more heavily on external finance respond more strongly...

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both "naive" forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside...

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both naive forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside...

Benchmark finance and macroeconomic models appear to deliver conflicting estimates of the natural rate and bond risk premia. This natural rate puzzle applies not only in the U.S. but across many advanced economies. We use a unified no-arbitrage macro- finance model with two trend factors to...

This paper constructs a broad measure of financial conditions for the United States which suggests that since the onset of the credit crisis there has been a marked tightening in financial conditions, despite a substantial easing of policy rates and a depreciation of the dollar. This measure of...

This paper constructs a broad measure of financial conditions for the United States, Japan, the Euro Area and the United Kingdom, by extending monetary condition indices which are traditionally used to gauge the impact of monetary policy on the economy. In addition to changes in the exchange...

Financial conditions indices (FCIs) have been developed to summarise financial conditions and also supplement more traditional macroeconomic forecasting. They capture market expectations but also quantitative and survey information. This paper seeks to provide up to date financial conditions...

This paper constructs a broad measure of financial conditions for the United States which suggests that since the onset of the credit crisis there has been a marked tightening in financial conditions, despite a substantial easing of policy rates and a depreciation of the dollar. This measure of...

This paper constructs a broad measure of financial conditions for the United States, Japan, the Euro Area and the United Kingdom, by extending monetary condition indices which are traditionally used to gauge the impact of monetary policy on the economy. In addition to changes in the exchange...

The recent global financial crisis has increased interest in macroeconomic models that incorporate financial frictions. We illustrate the simulation properties of five medium-sized general equilibrium models used by central banks in the Eurosystem. The models include a financial accelerator...