The book is divided into four chapters. The first one introduces the structure of deregulated, competitive electricity markets with the power pools and power exchanges as the basic marketplaces for price discovery. Chapter 2 reviews the so-called stylized facts of selected power markets. In...

CONTENTS: 1.Introduction; 2.Financial market; 3.Electricity market; 4.Power exchange; 5.Forwards, futures and options; 6.Risk management; 7.Software (SPIS TRESCI: 1.Wprowadzenie; 2.Rynek finansowy; 3.Rynek energii elektrycznej; 4.Gielda energii elektrycznej; 5.Kontrakty terminowe; 6.Zarzadzanie...

A major issue in financial economics is the behavior of asset returns over long horizons. Various estimators of long range dependence have been proposed. Even though some have known asymptotic properties, it is important to test their accuracy by using simulated series of different lengths. We...

In this paper we address the issue of modeling spot electricity prices. After summarizing the stylized facts about spot electricity prices, we review a number of models proposed in the literature. Afterwards we fit a jump diffusion and a regime switching model to spot prices from the Nordic...

In this paper we address the issue of modeling and forecasting electricity loads. We apply a two-step procedure to a series of system-wide loads from the California power market. First, we remove the weekly and annual seasonalities. Then, after analyzing properties of the deseasonalized data we...

CONTENTS: Preliminary remarks; Brownian motion, poisson process, alpha-stable Levy motion; Computer simulation of alpha-stable random variables; Stochastic integration; Spectral representations of stationary processes; Computer approximations of continuous time processes; Examples of...

The earliest model of stock prices based on Brownian diffusion is the Bachelier model. In this paper we propose an extension of the Bachelier model, which reflects the subdiffusive nature of the underlying asset dynamics. The subdiffusive property is manifested by the random (infinitely...

In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. In particular we calibrate AR/ARX (''X'' stands for exogenous/fundamental variable -– system load in our study), AR/ARX-GARCH, TAR/TARX and Markov regime-switching models to...