The authors of this paper claim that modeling financial markets based on probability theory is a severe systematic mistake that led to the global financial crisis. They argue that the crisis was not just the result of risk managers using outdated financial data, but that the employed efficiency...

Basel II changes risk management in banks strongly. Internal rating procedures would lead one to expect that banks are changing over to active risk control. But, if risk management is no longer a simple "game against nature", if all agents involved are active players then a shift from a...

Eine mikroökonomische Theorie des Bankverhaltens ist ein unverzichtbares Element für ein Verständis der Funktionsweise der Finanz- und Kreditmärkte und des Geldangebotsprozesses. Aus diesem Bedürfnis heraus ist während der letzten zwei Jahrzehnte, besonders im angelsächsischen Raum, eine...

In this paper, the authors show that, under a variety of alternative assumptions about the private informati on of loan applicants, a competitive market for loans is characterize d by screening. Banks separate out loan risks by offering higher loan s at higher interest rates. Depending on the...