A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North...

A stochastic model for the tracks of tropical cyclones that allows for the computerised generation of a large number of synthetic cyclone tracks is introduced. This will provide a larger dataset than previously available for the assessment of risks in areas affected by tropical cyclones. To...

We consider a spatial stochastic model for the simulation of tropical cyclone tracks, which has recently been introduced. Cyclone tracks are represented as labeled polygonal lines, which are described by the movement directions, translational speeds, and wind speeds of the cyclones in regular...

By providing financial security against droughts, floods, tropical cyclones and other forms of weather extremes, insurance instruments present an opportunity for developing countries in their concurrent efforts to reduce poverty and adapt to climate change. By pricing risk, insurance provides...

Abstract We show how regional prediction of car insurance risks can be improved for finer subregions by combining explanatory modeling with phenomenological models from industrial practice. Motivated by the control-variates technique, we propose a suitable combined predictor when claims data...

Distributional properties are considered of the typical cell of stationary iterated tessellations (SIT), which are generated by stationary Poisson-Voronoi tessellations (SPVT) and stationary Poisson line tessellations (SPLT), respectively. Using Neveu’s exchange formula, the typical cell of...

Distributional properties are considered of the typical cell of stationary iterated tessellations (SIT), which are generated by stationary Poisson-Voronoi tessellations (SPVT) and stationary Poisson line tessellations (SPLT), respectively. Using Neveu’s exchange formula, the typical cell of...

Recent studies suggest that the correlation of stock returns increases with decreasing geographical distance. However, there is some debate on the appropriate methodology for measuring the effects of distance on correlation. We modify a regression approach suggested in the literature and...

For risk processes with a general stationary input, a representation formula of ladder height distributions is proved which includes some additional information on process behaviour at the ladder epoch. The proof is short and probabilistic, and utilizes time reversal, occupation measures and...