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-on-quarter growth rate in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the … for GDP forecasting, although their ranking depends on the underlying transformation of monthly indicators from which the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010580967
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regression used in Bai and Ng (2008), called the elastic net (Zou and Hastie, 2005). We illustrate our approach by forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498420
Employing a large number of financial indicators, we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to forecast real-time measures of economic activity. The indicators include credit spreads based on portfolios, constructed directly from the secondary market prices of outstanding bonds, sorted by maturity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011009943
We document the empirical properties of revisions to major macroeconomic variables in the United States. Our findings suggest that they do not satisfy simple desirable statistical properties. In particular, we find that these revisions do not have a zero mean, which indicates that the initial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504505
model forecast should become the benchmark for forecasting horse races. We compare the real-time forecasting accuracy of the … forecasting models is efficient. Our second finding is that there is no single best forecasting method. For example, typically … simple AR models are most accurate at short horizons and DSGE models are most accurate at long horizons when forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083411
In recent years some paers have been bublished that deal with the forecasting performance of indicators for the German …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005790553
. The results of a real-time forecasting exercise suggest the model performs well in comparison to the consensus forecasts …-time GDP forecasts for Japan, aiming at increasing knowledge regarding Japan’s GDP forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011077364
The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084671
best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932