The digital economy has created some new measurement challenges for macroeconomic statistics and may have exacerbated some older ones, raising some concerns about the scope and estimation of GDP. Against a backdrop of slowing rates of measured productivity growth, this has raised questions about...

Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study how changes in expectations and their interaction with monetary policy contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. We find that changes in...

In the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities, wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices, when facing both idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. We derive a closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve which relates average output gap to...

Wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities. Several interesting implications arise. First, a closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve relates average unemployment to average wage inflation;...

This paper studies quarterly employment flows of approximately 10,000 large U.S. manufacturing establishments during 1972:1-1980:4.After estimating the extent of short run microeconomic substitution between employment and hours per worker (hours-week), we construct measures of the path of the...

Dans le but d'analyser le cycle de productivité de l'emploi, cet article présente un modèle de cycles réels avec coûts d'ajustement croisés sur l'investissement et le travail. Le modèle est simulé et confronté aux faits stylisés du marché du travail. Nous évaluons plus...

La Nouvelle Macroéconomie Keynésienne a récemment insisté sur les notions de complémentarité stratégique et de défauts de coordination. En particulier, l'hétérogénéité entre «répondants» et «non-répondants » a été perçue comme donnant un poids disproportionné aux «...

The UK was depressed for 20 years between the two World Wars. The decrease in output was entirely due to lower hours per worker and lower employment. Our main finding is that generous unemployment benefits, in conjunction with large negative sectoral shocks, is the most plausible candidate...

This paper develops a model of unemployment fluctuations. The model keeps the architecture of the Barro and Grossman (1971) general disequilibrium model but replaces the disequilibrium framework on the labor and product markets by a matching framework. On the product and labor markets, both...

In this paper we study the experiences of wage and price mark-up adjustments (internal devaluation) in Germany (in the decade up to 2009) and Spain (in the 5-year after 2009) within the framework of the ECB’s New Multi-Country Model (NMCM). The NMCM works both in a rational expectation...