This paper derives and estimates rules for fiscal policy that prescribe the optimal response to changes in unemployment and debt. We combine the reducedform model of the economy from a linear VAR with a non-linear welfare function and obtain analytic solutions for optimal policy. The variables...

This unique and fascinating book illustrates that the ‘credit crunch’ and the ensuing financial and economic crisis of 2007–2009 did not only strike hard at the economy in the Western world, but also at its policymakers, at economics as a scientific discipline and, more...

Bubbles are usually viewed as a threat to financial stability. This paper takes a more nuanced view. The world economy is going through an episode of Secular Stagnation, where the equilibrium rate of return on capital r is below the growth rate of the economy g. As is well-known, rational...

CPB forecasts for the next year and for the next period of government should be seen as well-motivated estimates based on all recent information, plausible assumptions and expected trends. These assumptions and trends are partly based on econometric estimation methods and insights from economic...