Recent central bank experience with inflation targeting is used to restate Hayek's reform proposal as a performance contract. This requires banks to first state an explicit inflation target and then promise to perform a set of actions whenever an independent forecast departs from target. Making...

We examine a simple estimator for the multivariate moving average model based on vector autoregressive approximation. In finite samples the estimator has a bias which is low where roots of the characteristic equation are well away from the unit circle, and more substantial where one or more...

Dependence among large observations in equity markets is usually examined using second-moment models such as those from the GARCH or SV classes. Such models treat the entire set of returns, and tend to produce similar estimates on different major equity markets, with a sum of estimated GARCH...