China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

Economic growth theory predicts more success for North-South than for South-South agreements. We compare the speed of convergence of the North-South area NAFTA with that of the South-South area SICA and the one of the MERCOSUR. We apply GSL fixed effects and a random effects regression with the...

The permanent income rule is seldom the optimal response to a windfall of foreign exchange, such as that from a resource discovery. Absorptive capacity constraints require domestic investment, and investment in structures requires non-traded inputs the supply of which is constrained by the...

In this paper, we develop a growth model in which aid finances infrastructure investment and pro-poor spending in order to analyze ways through which aid can be made more effective. We assume that the recipient countries are aid-dependent in the early phase of development and that they...

In diesem Beitrag wird die Beziehung zwischen der Schuldenquote des Staates und dem realen BIP-Wachstum pro Kopf für die Mitgliedstaaten des Euroraums und einer Reihe weiterer Industrieländer untersucht. Dabei wird zwischen Perioden eines nachhaltigen und nicht-nachhaltigen Schuldenstandes...

This paper examines the effect of land market liberalization on the dynamics of capital accumulation. It is shown that the land market liberalization, which is accompanied with the transfer of agricultural technology, may not always offer a “win‐win” outcome for developed and developing...

This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is...

Recent contributions to the growth literature have argued that the structure of an economy, as measured by its productive capabilities, is a key determinant for inter-country differences in development. Productive capabilities have been shown to be highly predictive of future economic growth,...