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best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
We study the informational role of prices in a stochastic environment. We provide a closed-form solution of the monopoly problem when the price imperfectly signals quality to the uninformed buyers. We then study the effect of noise on output, market price, information flows, and expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729770
We derive optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model when private agents follow adaptive learning. We show that this slight departure from rationality has important implications for policy design. The central bank faces a new intertemporal trade-off, not present under rational expectations:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048583
this paper we consider both forecasting and optimization decisions in an experimental cobweb economy. We report results … optimization problem), (3) they do both and (4) they are paired in teams and one member is assigned the forecasting role while the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048645
are assumed to underparameterize their forecasting models. A Misspecification Equilibrium arises when beliefs are optimal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069600
This Paper shows that price rigidity evolves in an economy populated by imperfectly rational agents who experiment with alternative rules of thumb. In the model, firms must set their prices in the face of aggregate shocks. The payoff depends on the level of aggregate demand, as well as on their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661497
A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the context of an economy where economic agents have an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791794
general classes of steady states within this framework: those where strictly dominated forecasting rules vanish, and those … heterogeneity can also arise in a model where the forecasting rules are not equally costly and do not exhibit identical performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010679090
This chapter provides a survey of the recent work on learning in the context of macroeconomics. Learning has several roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts as a selection device in models with multiple REE...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024243
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015070820