Density forecasts for weather variables are useful for the many industries exposed to weather risk. Weather ensemble predictions are generated from atmospheric models and consist of multiple future scenarios for a weather variable. The distribution of the scenarios can be used as a density...

In areas from medicine to climate change to economics, we are faced with huge challenges and a need for accurate forecasts, yet our ability to predict the future has been found wanting. The basic problem is that complex systems such as the atmosphere or the economy cannot be reduced to simple...

“We have become increasingly aware that our businesses and societies are embedded in complex systems – the economic system, the climate system, and so on – which are globally linked and may be susceptible to sudden change. Forecasting tools developed for the demands of classical astronomy...

Orrell and McSharry, authors of A Systems Approach to Forecasting (issue 14 of Foresight) reply to commentaries by Roy Batchelor, and Paul Goodwin and Robert Fildes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009