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An agent wants to derive her belief over outcomes based on past observations collected in her database (memory). There is well establish evidence in the psychology and marketing literature that agents consistently fail (or choose not) to process all available information. An agent might be...
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Quantum decision theory (QDT) is a recently developed theory of decision making based on the mathematics of Hilbert … decision making. QDT describes a decision maker's choice as a stochastic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of … subjectivity on decision makers, the quarter law. We examine individual and aggregated (group) data, and find that the results are …
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Using trading data from a sports-wagering market, we estimate individuals' dynamic risk preferences within the prospect-theory paradigm. This market's experimental-like features facilitate preference estimation, and our long panel enables us to study whether preferences vary across individuals...
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the relative standing of their group among other groups. On average, individuals exhibit overconfidence bias in both types …, the salience of between-group judgments should mitigate within-group overconfidence. Our second hypothesis is that within …-group overconfidence is reduced in the presence of group identity. Using a 2×2 between-subject design, we test, and find strong support for …
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On average young people "undersave" whereas old people "oversave" with respect to the rational expectations model of life-cycle consumption and savings. According to numerous studies on subjective survival beliefs, young people also "underestimate" whereas old people "overestimate" their...
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One apparent reason for deferring a decision – abstaining from choosing, leaving the decision open to be taken by … an axiomatic theory of decision in situations where a costly deferral option is available that captures this source of …
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The preference reversal phenomenon is one of the most important, long-standing, and widespread anomalies contradicting economic models of decisions under risk. It describes the robust observation of frequent "standard reversals" where long-shot gambles are valued above moderate ones but then the...
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