This article contributes to the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) and excess consumption smoothness debate in the context of fractional integration. We show that the excess consumption smoothness result is a consequence of the quarterly data frequency commonly employed in the empirical work. In...

Markov-switching rational expectations (MSRE) models can bring out fresh insights beyond what linear rational expectations models have done for macroeconomics, as noted and predicted by Davig and Leeper (2007) and Farmer, Waggoner and Zha (2009), among others. However, a lack of tractable...

This paper argues against determinacy as a guide to interpret rational expectations solutions, using an example in which a determinate solution exists but differs sharply in dynamic behavior from that implied by the model considered on a sector-by-sector basis.

This article complements the structural New-Keynesian macro framework with a no-arbitrage affine term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro-model with an unobservable time-varying inflation target and the natural rate of output which are filtered from...

This paper presents a small-sample study of the three-equation-three variable New-Keynesian macro model. While the point estimates imply that the Fed has been stabilizing inflation fluctuations since 1980, our econometric analysis suggests considerable uncertainty regarding the stance of the Fed...