This paper shows that climate-related forced displacement is insufficiently addressed in two fundamental commitments made towards the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) between 2015 and 2023: National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and Nationally Determined Contributions...

The shift in global goods production towards Asia is well documented. But global consumer demand has so far been concentrated in the rich economies of the OECD. Will that also shift towards Asia as these countries get richer? This paper defines a global middle class as all those living in...

In this multi-country study, sample countries selected from each segment of development levels areanalysed in terms of demography, urbanization, economic policy, geographical location, natural resources, human capital, income distribution and several other factors. In a former study by the...

World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently. There are both structural and cyclical reasons for the slowdown. A deceleration in the rate of trade liberalisation post 2000 was initially obscured by the ongoing expansion of...

After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying...

At least since 1750 when Baron de Montesquieu declared “peace is the natural effect of trade,” a number of economists and political scientists espoused the notion that trade among nations leads to peace. Employing resources more efficiently to produce some commodities rather than others is...

Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird 2019 voraussichtlich nur um ein halbes Prozent wachsen. Unter Unsicherheiten leidet vor allem die Industrie wegen der globalen Handelskonflikte und des Brexits. Ob dies in einen gravierenden Abschwung münden wird, darüber gibt es Zweifel. Eine wachstumsorientierte...

This paper analyzes the role of the United States in the global economy and examines the extent of global spillovers from changes in U.S. growth, monetary and fiscal policies, and uncertainty in its financial markets and economic policies. Developments in the U.S. economy, the world's largest,...