We analyse if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the last few years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. The empirical part...

In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...

Gemessen an der Wachstumsrate des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts weist Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich in den letzten Jahren eine besonders schlechte Wirtschaftsleistung auf. Ob dies eher eine ungünstige konjunkturelle Entwicklung widerspiegelt oder ob sich dahinter eine langfristige...

This thought-provoking book discusses the concept of progress in economics and investigates whether any advance has been made in its different spheres of research. The authors look back at the history, successes and failures of their respective fields and thoroughly examine the notion of...