Bali, Turan G.; Kelly, Bryan T.; Mörke, Mathis; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
machine learning model specifications. Each investor forms return forecasts from their own specific model using data inputs … that are available to all investors. We measure disagreement as dispersion in forecasts across investor-models. Our measure … aligns with extant measures of disagreement (e.g., analyst forecast dispersion), but is a significantly stronger predictor of …