Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime … price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The results are informative for … assessing the likelihood and risks of meeting certain inflation targets on a sustained basis …

explaining bouts of inflation. We begin by showing that a quasi-flat Phillips curve, which was popular prior to the pandemic …, still fits the post-2020 US data well and that changes in short term inflation expectations induced by supply shocks likely … played a major role in the recent inflation episode. We then document features of the joint dynamics of inflation and …

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery … the slowdown and later the weak pace of the recovery – errors made by many other forecasters. At the same time, inflation …

The paper seeks to shed light on inflation dynamics of four new EU member states (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland … inflation-forcing variable is fragile. (2) Inflation seems to be driven by external factors. (3) Although inflation holds … forward-looking component, the backward-looking one is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher inflation persistence …

This paper examines the relationship between the output gap and inflation in Japan by estimating Phillips curves and … testing for changes since the advent of low inflation and/or the stabilisation of the rate of change of inflation. The work … provides empirical support for the hypothesis of a change in the relationship between output and inflation in an environment of …

In recent years, inflation in the euro area has failed to decelerate decisively while cyclical slack built up in the … analysis conducted on two decades of quarterly data covering 17 countries yields a yes on both counts. First, inflation is …

rates on domestic inflation, which may have contributed to differences in policy stances during the boom in commodity prices …

A statistically significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation can be found for a clear majority … slack on inflation can often be dominated by other shocks, including imported inflation. The current Secretariat Phillips … curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s target, although some experimentation …

The US and other advanced countries suffered bursts of severe inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022, followed by … declines of inflation later in 2022, in some countries. In times of high volatility of price determinants--cost and … productivity--inflation can jump upward and fall downward at high speed, contrary to the uniformly sticky behavior associated with …

This chapter examines the concept of inflation persistence in macroeconomic theory. It begins by defining persistence … persistence from the literature on imperfect information models, learning models, and so-called “trend inflation models …