This paper tests the properties of the zloty-dollar exchange rate for the possible presence of unknown non-linearities. It concludes that there is strong evidence for the presence of an underlying non-linear process which is possibly chaotic. A non-linear model which allows for discrete...

In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...