I construct a no-arbitrage term structure model with endogenous regime shifts and apply it to Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. This model subjects the short-term interest rate to monetary regime shifts, specifically a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and normal regimes, which depend on...

This article analyses the yield-curve predictability for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth by modifying the time-series property of the interest rate process in Ang <italic>et al.</italic> (2006). When interest rates have a unit root and term spreads are stationary, the short rate's forecasting role changes,...

We develop a regime-switching SVAR (structural vector autoregression) in which the monetary policy regime, chosen by the central bank responding to economic conditions, is endogenous and observable. There are two regimes, one of which is QE (quantitative easing). The model can incorporate the...

We propose an empirical framework for analyzing the macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing (QE) and apply it to Japan. The framework is a regime‐switching structural vector autoregression in which the monetary policy regime, chosen by the central bank responding to economic conditions,...

This paper presents a theoretical model to explain how debt overhang is generated in low-income countries and discusses its implications for aid design and debt relief. It finds that the extent of debt overhang and the effectiveness of debt relief depend on a recipient country’s initial...