The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast from the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...

This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts of the major OECD economies as well as the aggregate OECD. The degree of uncertainty – reflecting the overall spread of the fan chart – is based on past forecast errors, but the skew – reflecting...

Fan charts were pioneered by the Bank of England and Riksbank and provide a visually appealing means to convey the uncertainty surrounding a forecast. This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts by which the degree of uncertainty is based on past...

This paper describes an algorithm, “DoomBot”, which selects parsimonious models to predict downturns over different quarterly horizons covering the ensuing two years for 20 OECD countries. The models are country- and horizon-specific and are automatically updated as the estimation sample...

Comparisons of economic performance over space and time largely depend on how statistical evidence from national accounts and historical estimates are spliced. To allow for changes in relative prices, GDP benchmark years in national accounts are periodically replaced with new and more recent...

Federal statistical agencies in the United States and analogous agencies elsewhere commonly report official economic statistics as point estimates, without accompanying measures of error. Users of the statistics may incorrectly view them as error-free or may incorrectly conjecture error...

In this essay we review the empirical literature about sovereign debt and default. As we survey the work of economists, historians, and political scientists, we also emphasize parallel developments by theorists and recommend steps to improve the correspondence between theory and data.

Analyzed is the condition of the Bulgarian economy for 2008 from the point of view of arising internal stains and disbalances. In the first part studied is the dynamics of particular elements of GDP and it is shown that the economic expansion in the last decade is due to import of goods and...

This article presents Bulgarian economy situation by 2008, analysed in terms of some evolving inner tensions and disbalances. The individual elements’ dynamics of GDP is traced in the first part, illustrating how the economic expansion of the last decade is to be attributed to the imports of...

Intangible assets are largely ignored by the “traditional” System of National Accounts (SNA), although they play an increasingly important economic role. The reasons for this are the substantial measurement and valuation problems. This article applies a methodology based on Hulten (1979) and...