This paper develops optimal tests based on sequential predictive moment conditions. We show that an appropriate weighting version of the predictive test achieves the same power as optimal structural change tests proposed by Sowell (1996a) Optimal tests for parameter instability in the...

A new test is proposed for the weak white noise null hypothesis. The test is based on a new automatic selection of the order for a Box–Pierce (1970) test statistic or the test statistic of Hong (1996). The heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) critical values from Lee (2007)...

Contrasting sharply with a recent trend in DSGE modeling, we propose a business cycle model where frictions and shocks are chosen with parsimony. The model emphasizes a few labor-market frictions and shocks to monetary policy and technology. The model, estimated from U.S. quarterly postwar data,...

This paper studies the statistical properties of impulse response functions in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) with a highly persistent variable as hours worked and long-run identifying restrictions. The highly persistent variable is specified as a nearly stationary persistent process....