This paper analyzes the relationship between stock returns and real activity from the point of view of a general equilibrium, multicountry model of the business cycle. The empirical evidence suggests that there is a relationship between domestic output growth and domestic stock returns which...

"This paper presents a modeling framework that delivers joint forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk, as well as stress-tests of these indicators as impulse responses to structural shocks identified by standard macroeconomic and banking theory. This framework...

We develop a novel dynamic model of banking showing that aggregate bank capital is an important determinant of bank lending. In our model commercial banks finance their loans with deposits and equity, while facing equity issuance costs. Because of this financial friction, banks build equity...