Economic theory predicts that transformative technologies may influence interest rates by changing growth expectations, increasing uncertainty about growth, or raising concerns about existential risk. Examining US bond yields around major AI model releases in 2023-4, we find economically large...

We theoretically characterize the behavior of machine learning asset pricing models. We prove that expected out-of-sample model performance--in terms of SDF Sharpe ratio and test asset pricing errors--is improving in model parameterization (or "complexity"). Our empirical findings verify the...

We study the effects of an unconditional cash transfer program on social preferences of children. The program allocated $1,076 to randomly selected households in rural Kenya. We measure the social preferences of 4,022 children from 1,687 households with survey questions and incentivized...

Many interventions that "work" in small-scale trials often fail at scale, highlighting the centrality of effective scaling for realizing the promise of evidence-based policy. We study the scaling of a personalized adaptive learning (PAL) software that was highly effective in a small-scale trial....