Periodically, the global economy experiences great commodity booms and busts, characterized by a broad and sharp comovement of commodity prices. There have been two such episodes since the Korean War. The first event peaked in 1974 and the second in 2008, 34 years apart. Both created major...

In a panel data framework applied to Portfolio Distance-to-Default series of corporate sectors in the euro area, this paper evaluates systemic and idiosyncratic determinants of default risk and examines how distress is transferred in and between the financial and corporate sectors since the...

We introduce the class of linear-rational term structure models in which the state price density is modeled such that bond prices become linear-rational functions of the factors. This class is highly tractable with several distinct advantages: i) ensures nonnegative interest rates, ii) easily...

In this paper, I study risk-neutral probability densities regarding future Libor rates denominated in British pounds, euros, and US dollars as implied by option prices. I apply Breeden and Litzenberger's (1978) result regarding the relationship between option prices and implied probabilities for...

This paper proposes an asymmetric kernel-based method for nonparametric estimation of scalar diffusion models of spot interest rates. We derive the asymptotic theory for the asymmetric kernel estimators of the drift and diffusion functions for general and positive recurrent processes and...

We use a comprehensive database of inter-dealer quotes to conduct the first empirical analysis of the dynamics of the swaption cube. Using a model independent approach, we establish a set of stylized facts regarding the cross-sectional and time-series variation of conditional volatility and...

This chapter surveys the literature on fixed-income pricing models, including dynamic term-structure models, and interest-rate sensitive, derivative pricing models. Our overview of conceptual approaches highlights the tradeoffs that have emerged between the complexity of the probability model...

This is a survey of the basic theoretical foundations of intertemporal asset pricing theory. The broader theory is first reviewed in a simple discrete-time setting, emphasizing the key role of state prices. The existence of state prices is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage. State prices,...

The UK pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market’s probability distribution of the future Deutsche...

We consider the valuation of European quanto call options in an incomplete market where the domestic and foreign forward interest rates are allowed to exhibit regime shifts under the Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) framework, and the foreign price dynamics is exogenously driven by a regime...