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Nowcasting Turkish GDP and news decomposition
Modugno, Michele; Soybilgen, Bariş; Yazgan, Mustafa Ege - 2016
Real gross domestic product (GDP) data in Turkey are released with a very long delay compared with other economies, between 10 and 13 weeks after the end of the reference quarter. To infer the current state of the economy, policy makers, media, and market practitioners examine data that are more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011500399
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Fatal Errors : The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts
Shrader, Jeffrey; Bakkensen, Laura; Lemoine, Derek - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322749
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Strategic coordination in forecasting : an experimental study
Meub, Lukas; Proeger, Till; Bizer, Kilian; Spiwoks, Markus - In: Finance research letters 13 (2015), pp. 155-162
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011552469
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Dynamic network formation with foresighted agents
Song, Yangbo; Schaar, Mihaela van der - In: International journal of game theory : official journal … 49 (2020) 2, pp. 345-384
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012591581
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International environmental agreements-the role of foresight
Diamantoudi, Effrosyni; Sartzetakis, Eftichios Sofokles - In: Environmental & resource economics : the official … 71 (2018) 1, pp. 241-257
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011998637
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Do financial analysts herd?
Kim, Jin Yeub; Kim, Yongjun; Shim, Myungkyu - In: Global economic review 52 (2023) 3, pp. 202-219
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014419216
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Herding in probabilistic forecasts
Jia, Yanwei; Keppo, Jussi; Satopää, Ville - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 69 (2023) 5, pp. 2713-2732
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014305431
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The role of media for inflation forecast disagreement of households and professional forecasters
Maag, Thomas; Lamla, Michael - 2009
This paper investigates the effects of media coverage and macroeconomic conditions on inflation forecast disagreement … inflation affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show … and professionals primarily depends on the current rate of inflation. -- forecast disagreement ; inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003908680
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A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2014
We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
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Robust stochastic stability
Ferrer-Alós, Carlos; Netzer, Nick - 2014 - Revised version, January 2014
A strategy profile of a game is called robustly stochastically stable if it is stochastically stable for a given behavioral model independently of the specification of revision opportunities and tie-breaking assumptions in the dynamics. We provide a simple radius-coradius result for robust...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354639