Using a unique survey dataset, the author studies how financial market experts form their stock market expectations. He documents a strong disagreement among experts about how important macroeconomic and financial variables are related to stock returns. The results of an analysis of the...

We examine the statistical power of fundamental and behavioural factors with regards to stock returns of the Dow Jones Industrials Index. With a novel sentiment dataset from over 3.6 million Reuters news articles, we find significant correlations between Reuters sentiment and stock returns. We...

We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...