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Average skewness, which is defined as the average of monthly skewness values across firms, performs well at predicting future market returns. This result still holds after controlling for the size or liquidity of the firms or for current business cycle conditions. We also find that average...
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One of the most popular univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models is the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH …) specification. In addition to asymmetry, which captures the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative … subsequent shocks to volatility. However, the statistical properties of the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator of the EGARCH …
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Over the last three decades, the world economy has been facing stock market crashes, currency crisis, the dot-com and real estate bubble burst, credit crunch and banking panics. As a response, extreme value theory (EVT) provides a set of ready-made approaches to risk management analysis....
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