This study employs text-analysis software to analyze the contents of the Federal Reserve Beige Book summary of national economic and business conditions, with a particular focus on the predictive content of the text. We show that the Beige Book language is a good predictor of economic turning...

A lot of recent work has addressed the issue of the presence of long memory components in stock prices because of the controversial implications of such a finding for market efficiency and for martingale models of asset prices used in financial economics and technical trading rules used for...