This paper considers the primary challenges faced by the Eurozone and caused by the 2008+ crisis. It suggests that one should distinguish among institutional, conceptual (model/paradigm) and real economic challenges. As a factor that influences progress in other areas, the latter topic is a...

We apply the novel approach of Siliverstovs (2015) to modelling data sampled at different frequencies in order to scrutinise the composition of one of the most influential economic indicators in Switzerland. The Purchasing Managers' Index consists of eight sub-indices out of which only five...

Den gängigen Konjunkturprognosen liegen in der Regel komplexe ökonometrische Modelle mit einer Vielzahl von Input-Variablen zugrunde. Das Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach fragt in seiner „Neujahrsfrage“ die Bevölkerung seit Gründung der Bundesrepublik jedes Jahr nach ihren Erwartungen...

The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE). This measure, however, has the major drawback that it is constant over time and hence...

This paper extends the OECD Economics Department’s suite of short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth, which currently cover only the G7 countries, to the BRIICS countries. Reflecting the relative scarcity of high-quality macroeconomic time series, the paper adopts a small-scale...

This study investigates the usefulness of the business tendency surveys collected at the KOF institute for short-term forecasting of employment in Switzerland aggregated in the KOF Employment Indicator. We use the real time dataset in order to simulate the actual predictive process using only...

In this chapter we provide a guide for the construction, use and evaluation of leading indicators, and an assessment of the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyze the problem of indicator selection, choice of filtering methods, business...

Trade in value added (TiVA) indicators are increasingly used to monitor countries' integration into global supply chains. However, they are published with a significant lag - often two or three years - which reduces their relevance for monitoring recent economic developments. This paper aims to...

Accurate and timely information on the current state of economic activity is an important requirement for the policymaking process. Delays in the publication of official statistics mean that a complete picture of economic developments within a particular period emerges only some time after that...