Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study how changes in expectations and their interaction with monetary policy contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. We find that changes in...

An equilibrium model is used to assess the quantitative importance of monetary policy for the post-1984 decline in U.S. inflation and output volatility. The principal finding is that monetary policy played a substantial role in reducing inflation volatility, but a small role in reducing real...

This paper investigates the empirical performance of a cash-in-advance model of money demand in which the income velocity of money may be nonstationary. Generalized method of moments is used to estimate parameters from first-order conditions but, unlike much of the existing empirical work on...

This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...

This paper develops and illustrates a simple method of generating a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables...

This paper investigates trend and cycle dynamics in per capita income for the major U.S. regions during the 1956-1995 period. Cointegration and serial correlation common features information are used in jointly decomposing the series into trend and cycle components. We find considerable...